Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
